I wonder if this rift between Israel/Netanyahu and President Obama is real. It very well may be, but let's look at the way Obama's persona has changed over the last year or so. This may offer clues as to what is going on behind the curtain.

He has shown the world he is far tougher than most people imagined. His numerous drone strikes against militants using Pakistan as a sanctuary are not the actions of a pacifist. His surge in Afghanistan is not the work of a timid man who is averse to using the nation's military might. The assassination of Osama, the terrorist who bore a name uncomfortably close to his own, showed that whatever character flaws he may have, a lack of courage is not one of them.

I mention this because he is facing a real problem in Iran. Their influence is spreading across the Middle East. Egypt once slammed the door in their face and now the door is open. Bahrain, home of the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, is a majority Shi'ite country ruled by a Sunni monarchy, and the people are being stirred up by Iran, or by Iranian sympathizers in their midst. Iraq is perhaps the most worrisome country of all because it may soon fall into the Iranian orbit and follow Iran's lead.

That said, Iran seems to be going through a bit of a power struggle between Khameini, the top banana, and Ahmadinejad, the second banana. They are also struggling to keep the lid on unrest so they may not be as much of a threat to others until they gain stability at home. But even if their situation remains unstable, they are still steadily moving toward becoming a nuclear power. This is something both Israel and the Sunni Arab world believe would be a disaster. It could be that President Obama is starting to believe the same thing.

Obama reached out his hand to Iran in an attempt to establish some sort of diplomatic relationship, however feeble it might have been initially. But the Iranians used this as a propaganda moment, proudly spitting on his hand and showing their people how Iran will always stand up against the Great Satan. If there is one thing I've noticed about Obama, his Chicago-political nature is not one to allow any insult go unpunished. He doesn't respond to political opponents, he ridicules them and attempts to grind their face in the earth. Conflict is not something he shies away from.

Therefore, I would not be surprised to find out later that this very public spat was a ruse, a bit of deception used to get Iran to believe the U.S. and Israel would never unite against them to destroy their nuclear capability. In 1979 (1978--4 cubed-31I) Iran struck against the U.S. and held  its diplomatic staff hostage for 444 days. We are now entering the new direction phase of this sequence. The year 2011 or 2012 (2010--4 cubed-31N) should see this Iranian-American conflict move in a new direction, or receive a new impulse of historical energy, and I would not be surprised if it was directed against their nuclear program.

Grace and peace,

Tom